The models remain consistent and are converging on a solution for the two storms in this upcoming storm cycle. The eastward track of the first storm is becoming more likely, which will result in warmer temperatures early in this storm cycle. Impressive snow totals are still expected across both the Alps and especially the Pyrenees, where this will be the first major snowfall of the season. Major differences in the storm track for next weekend's system are still present.

Overall, the forecast has remained mostly unchanged over the last 24 hours. As mentioned, the models have trended more toward an easterly track for the first storm in this series. This will keep the coldest air in the central and eastern Austrian Alps, allowing snow levels to remain high during the first part of this cycle. Snow levels should peak at around 1800 - 2100 m on Friday night before starting to drop on Saturday. By Sunday morning, it will be snowing down to the bases with snow levels around 300 - 500 m. 

Unfortunately, the first storm in the Pyrenees will be primarily a rain event, as the cold air will be much farther north and east. Snow levels will be above 2500 m, and rain will be falling from Thursday night through Saturday morning. The cold front associated with the second storm will push through the Pyrenees starting Saturday morning, lowering snow levels below 500 m by Sunday morning. 

The models have trended slightly lower with snow totals in the Alps and higher with snow totals in the Pyrenees. In the Alps, winds will be out of the west-northwest and northwest for the majority of the time during these two storms, and the traditional Nordweststau favored areas will do best. In the Pyrenees, winds will start out from the northwest but turn more northerly following the cold front. This is the most favorable wind direction for snow accumulation in the Pyrenees, and the northern side of the range is going to get hammered. However, winds look very strong in the Pyrenees for much of this storm.

Let's examine some snow forecasts from the different models, starting first with the Alps. Below are the four lower-resolution major models: European, American, Canadian, and German.

And finally, the high-resolution WRF model is shown below. 

The snow totals in the models vary slightly, but the area with the greatest snowfall is consistent across them: the northern French Alps through the western Austrian Alps. In this region, .75 - 1.5 m is expected, likely deepest in the central Swiss Alps around Engelberg, Wengen, and Mureren. Of course, areas like Lech, Zurs, and Warth-Schrocken in the Vorarlberg region in Austria, Chamonix in the Haute-Savoie region of France, and the Valle d'Aosta in Italy will also get slammed. 

The lower resolution models show similar totals for the Pyrenees, .75 to 1 m.

However, the high-resolution WRF model has much lower totals in the 25 - 50 cm range. I think that is way underdone, and it will be interesting to see what the other high-resolution models show once we get in range. 

Beyond this storm, the models show another system arriving next weekend, around the 14th. As mentioned, there is not much consensus on the storm track, with some models taking the storm down into Spain while others bringing it into the western Alps. These tracks would result in quite different results and snow totals. They show additional storms through the middle of next week as well. We'll have to give it a few more days to get a better idea of the impacts of those storms. 

My next post will be on Friday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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