The 2025 hurricane season has begun as of June 1, and so far, it is a quiet start to the season. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts a 60% chance of an above-normal season due to ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.

2025 Hurricane Season Forecast

The NHC forecasts a 60% chance of an above-normal season, a 30% chance of a normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season. The NHC forecasts 13-19 named storms, 6-10 of which could be hurricanes, and 3-5 of which could be major hurricanes. The NHC does not forecast whether these hurricanes are favored to make landfall or not.

• A major hurricane is a category 3 (111-129 mph) or greater storm.
• Hurricanes are types of tropical cyclones that form in the tropics. 
• Learn more -> Tropical Cyclones, Explained.

Check out the names of tropical cyclones for 2025 below!

The NHC forecasts an above-normal season due to ENSO-neutral conditions, warmer-than-average ocean temperatures, forecasts for weak wind shear, and the potential for higher activity from the West African Monsoon.

ENSO Neutral Conditions 

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is in neutral conditions as of mid-June 2025 and is forecasted to remain in this neutral phase through the hurricane season. ENSO is strongly linked to the hurricane season due to the favorability of wind shear related to the ENSO phase.

During La Niña, weaker wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean can lead to an increase in hurricanes, while during El Niño, stronger wind shear in the Atlantic Ocean can lead to a decrease in hurricanes. During ENSO neutral conditions, wind shear remains favorable for an above-normal occurrence of hurricanes.

Ocean Temperatures

Ocean temperatures or sea surface temperatures (SSTs) strongly impact hurricanes or tropical cyclones. SSTs must be above 25 degrees Celsius for tropical cyclones to form. Tropical cyclones can move over cooler SSTs but will weaken as they do so. Warmer ocean temperatures cause more evaporation over ocean waters and allow the atmosphere to hold more moisture. This helps tropical cyclones quickly grow bigger and stronger.

Current SSTs across the ocean are well above normal and will lead to more evaporation and increased favorability for more and stronger hurricanes this season.

Check out the current SSTs (top) and associated SST anomalies (bottom).

Wind Shear

The wind shear forecast for the 2025 hurricane season is strongly related to the ENSO conditions. ENSO neutral favors lower wind shear, which creates favorable conditions for tropical cyclones and hurricanes.

• Wind shear is how the wind changes speed and direction with height.
• Low wind shear is when there is little change in wind speed and direction with height, which is favorable for tropical cyclone development and strengthening.

Exact wind shear forecasts are difficult to predict more than 2 weeks in advance, but large-scale weather patterns and ENSO can give insights into favorability. The ENSO neutral conditions combined with atmospheric conditions this summer and fall will be favorable for hurricane development and strengthening.

West African Monsoon

The West African Monsoon strongly influences tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic Ocean. These are often called African Easterly waves, which move west off of Africa and can develop into hurricanes. Once a low-pressure system or group of thunderstorms moves over warm ocean waters, it can rotate and form a tropical cyclone. Tropical cyclones form and develop because of two main causes: warm ocean temperatures and low wind shear. 

Current Conditions Mid-June 2025

Current conditions are fairly quiet across the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The Atlantic Ocean shows no activity and no foreseeable activity in the next 7 days. A slow start is typical of the Atlantic hurricane season due to an increase in African easterly waves expected later in the season, as well as SSTs gradually increasing through the summer and into the fall.

• The peak for the Atlantic hurricane season is September 10, and the season continues through November 30.

The Eastern Pacific hurricane season is well underway with 5 named storms as of mid-June 2025. Currently, Tropical Storm Ercik is expected to intensify into a Category 1 or 2 hurricane and impact coastal Mexico early Thursday, June 19. Erick's main threat will be strong winds along the coast, heavy rainfall (16-20+ inches) along the coast, and 3-12+ inches of rainfall to inland areas.

Additional Insights

Colorado State University (CSU) has a high reputation for its tropical cyclone outlooks, and we can use their forecasts and information to gain additional insights into what the 2025 hurricane season might look like. CSU forecasts an above-normal season (like the NHC), which is strongly linked to the above-normal ocean temperatures.

• The CSU team predicts 17 named storms and nine hurricanes in 2025.

The CSU outlook cautions some uncertainty with the hurricane season forecast due to ocean temperature anomalies being somewhat weaker than they were last year (2024) at this time. They additionally warn of the uncertainty in ENSO conditions later in the summer and fall, which have a low chance of switching to El Niño, but... these low chances are considerably higher than they were for last year’s hurricane season.

All in all, the data based on current and forecasted atmospheric/ocean conditions favor an above-normal hurricane season. There is some uncertainty with this forecast, but the primary signs favor an above-normal occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin in 2025.

Stay posted on more News articles this summer for notable hurricanes and other weather events, educational articles, and OpenSnow updates!

Zach Butler