June 2025 Review

Summer heat arrived early this year as nearly the entire West was warmer than normal in June, aside from areas along the coast and in some areas east of the Rockies, where temperatures were near normal.

Rainfall was above normal across the Southwest in June, including in many areas where June is the driest month of the year on average.

The culprits were 1) a stationary area of low pressure early in the month that drew in tropical moisture to the region, contributing to thunderstorms, and 2) an early start to monsoon season toward the end of the month.

Across the Northwest, rainfall was below average in most areas, though a soaking rainfall event did occur late in the month. Also, there were pockets of above-normal precipitation in Central Montana and Eastern Wyoming due to frequent thunderstorms mid to late month. 

July 2025 Outlook

July is expected to be hotter than average throughout the West, and across the entire country for the matter, except along the California coast, where there are equal chances of above or below normal temperatures.

Confidence is highest in the above-average heat across the Great Basin and Northern Rockies.

New Mexico and Southeast Arizona are favored for above-normal precipitation due to an active monsoon expected across the far Southwest, while the remainder of Arizona and Southern Utah, as well as the Central Rockies, have equal chances of above or below normal precipitation.

Below normal precipitation is favored across the Northwest and Far Northern Rockies. 

Vegetation fuels are already drying out quickly across much of the West following a hot and dry June, and expected above-normal temperatures in July will lead to rising fire danger in many areas.

California, the Northwest, and portions of the Northern Rockies are above normal significant wildland fire potential during July. Southern Utah is also favored for above normal activity, as a few large fires are already underway across this region.

Thanks so much for reading! The next monthly weather outlook will be posted in early August.

Alan Smith