A solid wave of snow moved through the western/northern Alps yesterday. Snow showers will continue in the Swiss Alps through Tuesday afternoon and in the eastern Alps through Thursday. Additional accumulations should be less than 10 cm. 

The first phase of the next storm cycle arrives on Thursday, sometime between the afternoon and the evening. The models disagree on how long this phase will last, but it should keep snowing through early Saturday morning or Saturday evening. 

Phase two begins on Saturday evening as the next upper-level low moves into the region. This part of the storm will be stronger and deliver another round of significant accumulations. Previous model runs had this storm digging farther south into the western Alps, which would have pushed a cold front through during the first wave. Now, the track is a bit farther east, and there is some question about whether we will see snow levels drop during the first phase. If the more easterly track holds, snow levels will remain a bit higher and start to fall when the cold front from phase two of this cycle arrives on Saturday. 

Since only one of the major models shows the cold front reaching west of the Austrian Alps, I think snow levels will stay high until Saturday night. We will have to watch the track of the first storm in the cycle, though, as any westward trend could keep snow levels down. I expect snow levels to peak around 1700 - 2000 m on Friday/Friday night, increasing from east to west. This would result in some rain/mix at lower elevations. 

Below, you can see the westward extent of the cold front from the European, Canadian, and American models. The European model brings the front farthest west, and that would increase the snow totals in the northern French and Swiss Alps. 

Significant accumulations are expected at mid and upper elevations during that time, followed by massive snow totals during phase two following the cold front. This cycle will produce a wide area of .5 - 1 m of new snow, with totals in the 1 - 2 m range for higher elevations from the northern French through the western Austrian Alps.

Saturday through Monday will feature extremely heavy snow at times, cold temperatures, and some strong winds. Travel will be difficult to impossible, and operations will be impacted at the open resorts. Let's leave it at that for now and see if the models push that cold front farther west during the first phase of this cycle. 

We still have major differences in the location of the upper-level low expected later next week. One scenario favors the western Alps, while the other favors the eastern Alps. Most of the forecast guidance has this storm taking a more easterly track, so I am still leaning toward the next storm favoring the eastern Swiss and Austrian Alps. 

My next post will be on Wednesday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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Regions of the Alps