Dry conditions are expected from Monday through Thursday of this week. Later in the week, the ridge will move from northwestern Europe to Scandinavia and become anomalously strong. It will impede the normal west-to-east flow over the region, allowing a weak area of low pressure to stall and strengthen.

This is expected to occur over the western Alps, which brings the best dynamics into Slovenia and the Balkans. Given the current forecast position for the low, the eastern Alps in Austria will be too far west for heavy snow. However, with this cut-off low, staying in nearly the same location for several days, 10 - 20 cm of snow is possible by Sunday. Croatia, Boznia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, and Albania should see more significant snow. 

However, the exact location of low-pressure systems cut off from the prevailing flow is difficult to forecast. If the storm stalls farther west, the better its dynamics will be, and it will reach Austria. Some models showed this scenario a few days ago.

We will have to watch for any westward trends but otherwise this will being mainly light snow to Austria from Thursday through Sunday.

Below is the upper-level pattern from Thursday through Sunday.

And here's the precipitation expected during this storm.

You can see the bulk of the heavier precipitation falling over eastern Europe. 

The models keep the large and strong ridge over northern Europe in place through about mid-month. We could see a storm drop down from the north once the ridge weakens and departs the region, but it's too early for specifics. 

My next post will be on Tuesday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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