A long-duration precipitation event for the Alps and Pyrenees begins this weekend. Snow levels will be high from the onset of the storm through around Wednesday morning. Before that time, snow will be falling above 2100 m, with mainly rain below that. Precipitation will be mainly showery through Tuesday before becoming heavier and more widespread as the upper-level low moves closer.

As of Friday morning, the big question is how far south and east the cold front gets next week. If the front penetrates further into the Alps, snow levels will be lower, and there will be some lower-density snow. Not only do the models disagree on the location of the cold front, but they also disagree on its strength. 

Below, you can see the southeastern extent of the cold front on Thursday of next week. The European model has temperatures down to -11, reaching the southern Alps. 

Meanwhile, the American model, shown below, has temperatures only falling to around -7 C in the Alps, with the colder air farther west. This would result in a significant difference in snow totals and snow quality. 

Before I get into the timing and totals, I'd like to see the models sort out this part of the storm. I think well over 1 m is possible for parts of the southern Alps through the end of next week. 

The models are less enthusiastic about another storm the following weekend, with recent runs showing a weaker storm. Still, some additional high-elevation remains possible, and there's still time for the storm to trend stronger as well. 

My next post will be on Monday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

Alps Regions:

NEW: Forecast Range Graphs

You can now view individual forecasts from global and regional high-resolution weather models in OpenSnow. This includes forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, HRRR, and ICON models, as well as the OpenSnow blend.

The graphs give you a behind-the-scenes look at the forecast and make it easier to see if the forecast models are in tight agreement or if there is a wide range of potential outcomes over the next 10 days.

Note: This is currently only available in the OpenSnow iOS app and website (OpenSnow.com). Android will be available soon.

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Understand if there is high or low confidence in the forecast. If all models show a similar forecast, there is higher confidence in the forecast, and vice versa.

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