The models for the two upcoming systems in this storm cycle have remained consistent over the past few days. The only change during this time is to reduce snow totals in the northern/western Alps and increase totals for the Pyrenees. Significant snow totals are still expected in both regions. 

To summarize, two upper-level lows will move through the western Alps over the next five days, with moderate to heavy snow expected for much of this time. The first storm will take a more easterly track and keep most of the cold air east of the Alps. The second storm will take a more southerly route between the Alps and the Pyrenees before cutting off and lingering over Spain for several days. This track will favor the Pyrenees, but the Alps will see substantial snow as well. 

The only change in the models the last few days has ben to take the upper-level low with the second storm farther south/west. This results in a shorter period of northwest winds and a longer period of west-southwest winds. As a result, the northern/western Alps from northern France through western Austria are expected less snow.

Let's just take a quick look at the latest snow forecasts from the models. I will show the WRF high-resolution model runs from Tuesday morning and then Thursday morning for both the Alps and the Pyrenees. 

First, you can clearly see the forecast snow totals in the western Alps have decreased, from .75 - 1.5 m down to 25 - 75 cm.

The opposite has occurred in the Pyrenees, with totals increasing from 25 - 75 cm to .5 - 1 m. 

The simple explanation is that the slightly different storm track produces less or more time with favorable or unfavorable winds. 

The models agree that a storm will drop down from the north later next week, around Thursday or Friday. However, the storm looks a bit too far east for any major impacts. I think it could certainly shift far enough west for some snow in the eastern Alps, at least, as this scenario was shown in the models last week.

My next post will be on Saturday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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Regions of the Alps