The major forecast details remain on track as we start the work week, but the latest model runs are increasing the weekend storm's impacts in the Pyrenees. Overall, we're looking at an exciting and active stretch of weather starting Monday night.  

The forecast for the first storm in this series, which will impact the Alps from Monday night through Thursday, has not changed much. Although this storm will keep snow going through Thursday, precipitation will turn more showery on Tuesday. The northern/western Alps will see the biggest totals, with widespread totals in the 5 - 15 cm range. 

Favored locations in the Savoie and Haute Savoie regions of France, and the Wallis, Vaud, and Nidwalden regions in the central Swiss Alps should see the most snow from this storm. The winds with this storm aren't too strong, so the Valle d'Aosta may come up a little short. Below is the latest snow forecast from the ICON model.

As mentioned, while the brunt of the storm will end Tuesday, snow showers will linger in the Austrian Alps through Wednesday or even Thursday. The next storm moves in late Thursday night/Friday morning, though there's still some question about the exact time the precipitation starts. There's also some discrepancy in the models for the storm track. 

Most of the models take this storm from northwest to southeast, right through the eastern side of the Alps, while the American model keeps this system farther north. This will produce a solid thump of snow from Friday to Saturday, again favoring the western/northern Alps. Then, the upper-level low this system split off from will drop down into western Europe, bringing the strongest impacts yet. 

This storm will stick around for several days, likely through Wednesday. Initially, the heavy snow will focus on the western Alps, with heavy snow through around Tuesday afternoon. As the storm moves farther south, the Pyrenees will get in on the action.  It will become cut off from the upper-level flow, perhaps even prior to crossing the Alps. Once it moves south of the Alps, the models are struggling to resolve the storm track.

Below is the upper-level pattern from Monday through Wednesday of next week. You can see the three storms I'm discussing in this post. 

If it retrogrades west toward Spain, significant additional accumulations are possible in the Pyrenees. If, instead, it is picked up by the west-to-east flow, the storm will wind down around Wednesday. Below is an early look at snow totals from the European model through Tuesday.

If the European model is correct, another round of snow is possible on Wednesday and Thursday, adding to the snow totals, especially in the Pyrenees. However, that's more than a week from now, so model snow totals aren't very reliable. I'll keep a close eye on the storm track, though, and once the models are in sync, I'll get into the snow totals.

The majority of the models predict .5 - 1 m of snow for many parts of the Alps, including the far northern French Alps, most of the Swiss Alps, and the western Austrian Alps. 

Finally, around the middle of the month, another potential storm cycle, this time favoring the eastern Alps, is possible. The ensembles show a strong and deep upper-level trough centered over Scandinavia. This setup typically results in Nordstaus, which can bring strong and cold storms to the Alps, especially in eastern Switzerland and Austria. 

This setup is my personal favorite and is usually what I'm looking for when considering a chase to the Alps. Nordstaus provide very cold air from the north, moisture from the North Sea, and northerly winds that flow into the Alps, which are forced to rise, unloading heavy snow during the process. Confidence is moderate for this pattern to develop at this time.

My next post will be on Tuesday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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