Friday (20th September)

South Island resorts will begin with clear conditions, but snowfall is forecast for this afternoon as a front moves in from the west. The Southern Lakes and Ohau can expect 3-10cm of snow, while the Craigieburn Range may get 2-4cm, with rain on the lower slopes. Mt Hutt will likely experience some rain in the evening. Strong northwest winds will reach gale force in exposed areas. On Mt Ruapehu, snowfall will intensify in the afternoon, with 10-20cm anticipated on mid and upper slopes, though rain is expected at the base before clearing at night.

The Weekend (21st & 22nd September)

Monday & Tuesday (23rd & 24th September)

On Monday, two fronts will sweep over the South Island, one early in the morning and another after the lifts close, both bringing significant snowfall. Rain may mix in at mid and lower elevations, especially in Canterbury, where the second front could bring rain even at higher levels. Between these fronts, expect partly sunny skies and increasing northwest winds, which could reach gale force in some areas.

Mt Ruapehu will have a fine start, but rain and drizzle will develop by late morning, with snow expected on the mid and upper slopes, along with brisk westerly winds.

By Tuesday, cold westerlies will gradually ease, and any remaining snow flurries over the Southern Lakes will clear.

Next week, a major temperature change is expected as a front moves through the South Island on Thursday and the North Island on Friday. Heavy rain will precede the front, driven by a warm northerly flow, followed by snowfall as a cold south-to-southwesterly wind sweeps across the country.

Thanks for reading. I'll continue to provide these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the southern hemisphere season.

Mike O'Connor