Forecast for Wednesday 2nd & Thursday 3rd July

Wednesday sees settled conditions across South Island slopes, with light northwesterlies and increasing high cloud as a weather system nears. Over on Mt Ruapehu, skies cloud over during the morning with brisk northerlies building, and patchy drizzle is likely to move in by night.

Thursday brings a more active pattern as the front pushes across the country. The South Island gets a decent snowfall, though it’ll be on the heavier, wetter side. In Canterbury, fluctuating snow levels mean some rain on lower slopes at either end of the day. The Southern Lakes might see around 5–15 cm, while Canterbury could see totals of 10–30 cm spread across elevations.

Meanwhile, conditions deteriorate further at Mt Ruapehu, where driving rain and strong northerly winds are expected to disrupt lift operations and reduce visibility.

Forecast for Friday 4th to Sunday 6th July

On Friday, the South Island stays mostly cloudy with brief light rain around midday. Winds remain gentle in the Southern Lakes, while Canterbury sees a mild northwesterly. Mt Ruapehu endures more rain and strong northwesterlies.

Saturday stays grey across the South Island, with light rain in Canterbury turning to snow later as colder air pushes in. Rain eases over Mt Ruapehu through the day as winds begin to ease.

By Sunday, skies clear early over the Southern Lakes, delivering a fine, calm day. Light snow in Canterbury gradually fades, though cloud lingers. Mt Ruapehu stays mostly cloudy under persistent southerlies.

From Wednesday 9 July, mild northerlies from the Tasman will bring rain and possibly some high-elevation snow to South Island ski fields. By the weekend, colder southerlies may deliver better-quality snow, with Canterbury looking most likely to benefit.

Thanks for reading. The next forecast will be out on Friday

Mike