Europe Daily Snow
By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 month ago December 17, 2024
Major Snow Headed to the Alps, But It's Not Perfect
Summary
You have to hold out a few more days before you get to play in powder again. Two storms, the second being huge, are on the way later this week through the middle of next week. A whole lot of snow is headed for the northern part of the western and eastern Alps, but at the end of the second storm, a massive ridge will cause temperatures to rise rapidly, leading to a host of problems.
Short Term Forecast
There haven't been too many changes in the forecast since yesterday. The models continue to show two storms for the Alps in the next week. The first will impact the region from Thursday through Friday, delivering a solid thump of snow to the northern western/eastern Alps. The second storm, arriving around Saturday night, will hammer the same region through Tuesday. Then, an anomalously strong and large ridge will develop over most of the continent, putting a stop to the snow but, more importantly, pulling a warm air mass into the region.
The first storm is pretty quick-hitting, but it will dump for a solid 24 hours. The northern French Alps through the northern side of the western Austrian Alps will see 25 - 50 cm through Saturday. This system will drag down some very cold air, with snow levels below 500 m during the storm and below 300 m after it ends.
Below is the latest forecast from the high-resolution WRF model.
Totals could exceed .5 m in the northern French and central Swiss Alps.
The storm will depart quickly but some lingering snow showers are possible through Saturday. The next storm moves in on Saturday night. This storm has a classic look, one that is known to bury the northern Alps. As I mentioned in this post, a strong ridge off the European coast allows a strong and deep low pressure to form over central/western Europe.
This is exactly what is happening here. North/northwest winds will direct cold air and moisture from the North Sea at the Alps. When that cold, moist hits the Alps, it's forced to rise, causing condensation and then clouds. Soon, all of that moisture from the North Sea is unloaded on the Alps. Snow will pick up on Saturday night, and by Sunday morning, it will be nuking across the northern Alps. Incredibly heavy snow will continue through Monday in the northern French Alps and through Tuesday in the Swiss and western Austrian Alps.
It will be absolutely hammering, leading to minimal visibility and upper mountain lift and terrain closures. Above treeline will be a challenge. Strong winds will accompany the snow, especially in the northern French and Swiss Alps. Most of the Swiss and western Austrian Alps will see 1 - 1.5 m, while the northern French Alps should come in between .5 - 1 m. That's impressive.
Snow levels will fall to around 100 m during the heart of the storm on Monday before slowing climbing through Tuesday.
All of that is great. It will lead to amazing powder days on Monday and Tuesday and do wonders for snow depths across the region. However, as this storm drops south of the Alps, this brutal ridge will hastily push into western Europe. It will quickly strengthen and expand, sending warm air into the Alps. Any snow that is still falling will become denser on Tuesday/Wednesday,, if not just transition to rain at lower elevations.
This won't just impact the snow quality, though, as a rapid rise in temperatures following a major snowfall over a short period of time is a recipe for dangerous avalanche conditions. So once the storm finally clears out around Thursday, the snow will be heavier,r and conditions will be dangerous.
Despite not being able to enjoy the low-density deep snow with good visibility, this storm will change the landscape. Most of the precipitation will be over when the temperatures really get warm, so I don't expect much rain.
Extended Forecast
This disgusting ridge is expected to stick around through the weekend before it begins to weaken and allow some storms to try and drop down from the north. Right now, those storms look like they will still track too far east.
My next post will be on Tuesday.
Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!
Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow
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