Snow continues in the eastern Austrian Alps this (Friday) morning as the upper-level low responsible for this storm slowly moves south. We'll see another 5 - 15 cm before the snow tapers off on Saturday.

Temperatures will climb today, and that will continue through Saturday before some cooler air out of the Northwest moves in. The next storm arrives on Monday from the Northwest, and another period of accumulating snow is expected. Temperatures will be warm ahead of this system, so we will have snow levels to start (~1950 - 2250 m) from west to east. 

This storm will favor the northern/western Alps, from the northern French Alps through most of the Austrian Alps. At mid- and upper elevations, I think snow totals will be around 10 - 20 cm for most of this region. Here's an early look at snow totals from the European model.

Snow showers will linger in the Austrian Alps through Wednesday, and the next storm will be on the doorstep. It looks like this storm will move in from the Northwest as well. At this point, models begin to diverge in terms of strength and snow totals, but another 10 - 20 cm is possible in the western Alps, from the northern French Alps through the Austrian Alps. The typical regions favored by northwest winds should do best.

The model disagreement increases with the next storm over the following weekend. Overall, the models show a much stronger storm this time, but with as much as 36 hours between potential arrival times. The upper-level setups are a bit different as well, which decreases my confidence a bit. Still, the majority of deterministic and ensemble models bring a significant storm with snow totals in the 25 - 50 cm range in the western Alps. 

Below is the upper-level pattern for Saturday, December 7th, for the European and American models. On the left, you can see an area of low pressure (blue/purple colors) just northwest of the Alps. On the right, in the same location, you can see part of a strong ridge to the southwest with the previous storm moving off to the east.

However, it's not the case that these models are showing distinctly different scenarios. Instead, they are more out of phase, with the storm forecast to arrive nearly two days later. 

More storms are possible early the following week. The latest guidance has a more northerly storm track, which would favor the Swiss/Austrian Alps and feature colder air. This is an exciting pattern and I am getting more hopeful by the day. 

My next post will be on Sunday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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Regions of the Alps