The models have trended stronger with the storm getting underway this (Thursday) morning, with higher totals expected in the eastern Swiss and eastern Austrian Alps. I now expect snow totals to fall in the 15 - 30 cm range, deepest in eastern Austria, where this storm will linger through Saturday. 

Sunday and Monday will be mainly dry before the next system arrives on Monday night. This will kick off an active and progressive pattern that will bring several disturbances into the Alps from the west.

There is some model disagreement on the strength of these fast-moving storms, ranging from all of them being weak to either the second or third being strong. The models do agree that the first system, from Monday night through Wednesday, will be on the weaker side. It will be warm for most of the event as well, and only 5-15 cm are expected in the higher elevations of the western/northern Alps. 

The next fast-moving storm arrives on Friday or Friday night, with the third arriving around Sunday. I’ll get into more detail on those two storms as the models converge toward a solution.

Some of the long range models continue to point at a more favorable pattern for larger storms going into the second week of December. Confidence remains low in this specific setup but overall the odds are better for more significant storms starting around that time.

My next post will be on Friday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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