Light snow continues this morning in the Swiss and Austrian Alps but will taper off by the afternoon, with only minor accumulations. A very weak disturbance will bring some snow showers to the inner alpine area from Wednesday morning through Wednesday night. Our next weak storm moves in from the northwest on Thursday morning and will favor the Swiss and Austrian Alps. 

The latest forecast data has this storm tracking a bit farther west, which will bring some heavier snow into the central Swiss Alps. Still, this is not a strong storm, and accumulations will likely end up in the 5 - 15 cm range, with a few spots around 20 cm in the Nidwalden and Vorarlberg regions.

The models now agree that after this storm moves south across the Alps, it will continue south into the Mediterranean and eventually move off to the east. For several days, the models showed this storm drifting west just south of the Alps, bringing moderate to heavy snow to the southern Alps. However, the strong upper-level ridge over northern Europe is now expected to depart the region in a more progressive pattern. This will prevent the low from being cut off from the flow, instead moving to the east after crossing the Alps. 

A result of this more progressive pattern the models are showing in the upper levels is that more storms will approach and move through the region. The next chance for a storm is around Monday, December 2nd. Another storm is possible next weekend as well. Both of these storms, however, do not look like major snow events at this time. 

Although it's way out in fantasy land, the ensembles are showing a pattern that's more conducive to strong and cold storms around the end of the first week of December. Overall, there is solid model agreement for this feature, considering it's fifteen days out. I wouldn't clear the calendar yet, but this is a good sign and another solid storm cycle of the Nordwestau variety is possible.

My next post will be on Thursday.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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