First Significant Cold Front of the Season for the East:

After a warm start to October, a powerful cold front will move across the East on Friday and Saturday with widespread below-average temperatures expected by Sunday. Moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Phillipe will also become entrained into the flow across the Northeas behind the front, and some higher elevation areas could see their first snowflakes of the season on Sunday. 

Snow levels are currently projected to lower to around 4,500 feet from New England into the Central Appalachians, with the potential for flurries and possibly very light accumulations for the White Mountains (NH), Adirondacks (NY), and the highest peaks of the Allegheny's (WV) including Snowshoe. 

Here are some forecasts to keep tabs on as we get closer to this event:

• Mount Washington
• Mount Marcy
• Snowshoe Mountain 
• Forecasts for Any Location

Forecast for Fri (Oct 6) to Sat (Oct 7):

The cold front will move across the East during this period with rain expected for the Great Lakes, New England, and Mid-Atlantic. Post-tropical Storm Phillipe will also approach Maine/SE Canada during this period, which will interact with the frontal system approaching from the west to result in heavy rain and the potential for isolated flash flooding across New England. 

Other than some lingering flurries across the Eastern Wyoming mountain ranges early Friday AM, the West will head into a warmer and drier pattern during this period as high pressure takes control. It should be a beautiful weekend to get outside and enjoy the fall colors. 

Across the Far North, storms will continue to make landfall in Southeast Alaska with more snow expected for the Coast Range. 

Forecast for Sun (Oct 8) to Mon (Oct 9):

Lighter showers will continue across the Northeast on Sunday with snow mixing in down to 4,500 feet or so (exact snow levels subject to change). Further drying is expected in the Northeast on Monday, but the remnants of Phillipe will drift westward into Ontario, and some areas could see a changeover from rain to snow, though confidence is low and the snowfall projections for Ontario shown here may be overdone. 

Out West, the next storm will make landfall in the Pacific Northwest on Monday with rain developing, while the higher elevations of the Cascades and BC Coast Range will see snow or a mix (snow levels currently projected to be around 6,000-7,000 feet). 

Further south, a little bit of moisture from Tropical Storm Lidia in the Pacific is expected to reach Arizona, New Mexico, and possibly Southern Colorado with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible on Sunday and Monday.

Forecast for Tue (Oct 10) to Wed (Oct 11):

A storm will impact a large portion of the West during this period with valley rain and mountain snow expected for the Pacific Northwest, Western Canada, and the Northern/Central Rockies. This storm may end up a bit too far north for the Sierra Nevada Range and Tahoe to get anything. 

The East will see a drying trend during this period while lingering moisture across the Northern Great Lakes will result in additional rain showers with only a slight chance of snowflakes mixing in across Ontario.

Outlook for Thu (Oct 12) to Mon (Oct 16):

We have three areas to keep an eye on during this period...

1) A storm is possible in Colorado and New Mexico early in this period, which could result in high-elevation snow and low-elevation rain. The Front Range and east side of the Continental Divide could also see some moisture from this storm.

2) An active Pacific storm track is expected across the Coast Range of British Columbia and Alaska where periods of rain and mountain snow can be expected. The Cascades will likely see some moisture as well, but not as much compared to areas north of the border. 

3) A cool and wet pattern is expected across the East, and the potential may exist for high-elevation snowflakes in the Northeast from time to time. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Monday (October 9).

Alan Smith