South America Daily Snow
By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago July 8, 2024
High and Dry
Summary
High pressure dominates the southeast Atlantic bringing calm and dry conditions to the South American resorts. The current position off the southern Chilean coast will keep the region on the cooler side, but warmer air will filter in from the north as the ridge progresses to the east. Still no signs of a pattern change until the middle of the month at the earliest.
Short Term Forecast
There weren't many model changes over the weekend, with a high pressure off the Chilean coast forecast to bring dry conditions for at least another week. This feature is expected to begin an eastward progression later this week and move out of the region around the middle of the month. At that point, the door will be open for more active weather to return.
Below is the ten-day average upper-level pattern ending July 18th. You can see the high pressure centered just off the Chilean coast persisting during this period.
This feature is quite stubborn, staying stationary for several more days before slowly beginning its move to the east. We'll remain cool for much of this week while the high pressure remains well off the coast, but as it moves inland warmer air will move into the region. You can see the progression of cold to warm temperatures later this week in the GIF below.
With the ridge leaving South America around the 15th it will no longer stand in the way of storms moving in from the west. This doesn't mean any significant storms WILL happen during this time, but at least the storm door will be open. The models still generally do show a storm arriving later that week, around the 18th or 19th, but it's too early for any further details at this time.
The bottom line is that we're stuck in this high-and-dry pattern through the middle of the month with the possibility of active weather returning a few days after that.
Extended Forecast
Out in fantasy land, the ensembles show another ridge developing after the possible storm moves through around the 18th. Let's hope that changes in the coming days and fortunately we have a lot of time for that to happen. Next update on Wednesday.
Thanks for reading the South America Daily Snow!
Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow
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