South America Daily Snow

By Luke Stone, Forecaster Posted 1 year ago July 5, 2024
A Quiet Stretch
Summary
After a record start to the season and relentless storms during the month of June, things are changing in July. We have entered a calm and dry stretch of weather that will continue through the middle of the month. The latest guidance has stormy conditions arriving around the 19th, but that's more than two weeks out at this time.
Short Term Forecast
This is going to be a pretty boring forecast, with no storms in sight for the next two weeks. For the first time in as long as I can remember, there won't be any snowfall maps in this forecast. A strong and persistent ridge off the southern Chilean coast will stand in the way of any storms through the middle of the month. Check out the upper-level pattern below:
This GIF runs through Saturday, July 20th. You can see the ridge (red/orange/pink colors) hanging out for most of this clip, before finally moving off to the east starting around the 15th. If the ridge does in fact break down and move out of the area, we could start to see some storms shortly thereafter.
This specific ensemble run of the American model has a storm moving in around the 18th. Other models and other runs have brought storms back between the 18th and 20th. The models have been fairly consistent in keeping this ridge around through at least the middle of the month. Model accuracy is pretty low beyond ten and especially beyond fourteen days, so it would not surprise me if the ridge broke down a little sooner or a little later.
Next update on Monday.
Thanks for reading the South America Daily Snow!
Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow
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