Today’s post will be short given the boring but persistent forecast for the foreseeable future. We’ll take a look at some different ensemble and deterministic models to get an idea of when this stubborn ridge might break down. 

Check out my article on ensemble vs. deterministic models for a refresh.

The European, American, and Canadian ensembles have a strong ridge over northwestern Europe through at least January 20th. The European and American ensembles show the ridge starting to break down around the 20th, with some eastward movement by the 24th.

This would open the storm door and allow a strong upper-level low to move into the region. This doesn’t guarantee snow for the Alps or Pyrenees or say anything specific about what the new pattern will look like, but at this point, this is what we want to see. We’re not quite in range of seeing what happens to that upper-level low yet, so we need to see how the models handle that as well.

The Canadian ensemble is less clear about the pattern following the breakdown of the ridge but seems to get to the same point as the other ensembles, albeit a few days later. 

Deterministic models are even less reliable in this timeframe of two-plus weeks, but if they share similarities with the ensembles, it can increase confidence. The deterministic European model looks very similar to its ensemble, with the ridge starting to break down around the 20th and a storm approaching around the 24th. 

The American deterministic model also has the ridge weakening around the 20th but the subsequent pattern is not like the ensembles.

The timing of the ridge's breakdown is a positive sign, though. The Canadian deterministic model only goes out for ten days, but we do see the ridge breaking down earlier, around the 18th.

It also differs from the ensembles and European deterministic model, which shows a weak storm tracking north of the Alps around the 21st. 

My next post will be on Monday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

Add Weather & Webcam Widgets

See current conditions, check the 10-day forecast, and keep an eye on your favorite webcams right on your iPhone and Mac home screen with the OpenSnow iOS Widgets.

How to Add iPhone Widgets

1. Tap and hold an empty area on the home screen until the apps jiggle.
2. Tap the "Add Button (+)" in the upper-left corner.
3. Search or scroll down to "OpenSnow".
4. Scroll through our list of widgets and then tap "(+) Add Widget".

How to Edit iPhone Widgets

1. Tap and hold the widget until the widget menu appears.
2. Tap "Edit Widget".
3. Tap "Location" to edit/select from your "Winter" or "Summer" list.

What about Android?

Android widgets are in development but we do not have a timeline for their release.

Learn More → iOS Widgets

Regions of the Alps