After a warmer-than-desired start to this storm cycle last weekend, the final stages came in colder, producing better-quality snow and snow down to lower elevations. This led to some significant snow across the northern/northwestern Alps in France and Switzerland, with some decent totals in the western Austrian Alps as well. 

Temperatures will stay cold today (Saturday) and through Sunday. I would still be targeting Sunday to get onto some better terrain with lots of opportunities for untracked powder, given the better visibility. 

The ridge will start to move in late Sunday, and by Monday, it will be firmly in place, bringing a warming trend through next weekend. 

There are no concrete signs of a pattern change at the moment in the ensemble or deterministic models, though the European model is hinting at a possible around the 24th.

Below is the deterministic upper-level forecast from the European model for the next two weeks. The ridge hangs out over western Europe until the 20th when it starts to move east, and a storm approaches from the west. 

The European ensemble, shown below, keeps the ridge around until the 20th as well, before it moves east, allowing the storm door to reopen. 

The American ensemble, on the other hand, brings another ridge into Western Europe as soon as the current one departs. This would result in a weak storm, at best, around that timeframe, and possibly no activity at all. 

With one major ensemble showing a strong storm approaching around the 24th while another replaces the current ridge with a second one, confidence is low in the timing and type of pattern change. If the pattern becomes more clear I'll let you know.

My next post will be on Monday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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