In my last few posts, I've covered the tail end of this long-duration storm and the weak storm that will affect the eastern Alps this weekend in depth. Today, I will focus on the long-range outlook.

After a break in the action from later Monday through Thursday of next week, an upper-level low will move in from the northwest. This looks like a fairly fast-moving storm that could pack a decent punch for the western and northern Alps. The latest guidance has this storm producing around 15 - 30 cm of snow from the northern French through the western Austrian Alps thanks to west/northwest winds. 

The models are in good agreement on that storm. However, the models then begin to diverge significantly. The American model quickly brings another system into the Alps that would bring another round of heavy snow to the western Alps. The European and Canadian models, however, show a ridge quickly redeveloping in Western Europe. 

The ridge should be short-lived, though, with another upper-level wave moving through over the weekend. This could track anywhere between the Pyrenees and eastern Alps, however, so the details remain unclear. 

It is possible that this storm will then be cut off from the jet stream and bring some snow to the southern Alps. 

Overall the pattern looks to remain active through the end of next week and through the end of the month. There are some signs of a ridge developing in the northeast Pacific, but it could be far enough west to produce a very favorable Nordstau setup for the Alps. It's in fantasy land, but when I see a high pressure developing in the northeast Atlantic, it always gets me interested. 

Below is the typical upper-level setup for a strong Nordstau.

The latest forecast for the upper level of the atmosphere around Christmas is shown below. There are certainly some similarities there. I will keep monitoring it as we head into next week.

My next post will be on Saturday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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