Friday & Saturday (30th & 31st August)

Snow showers at South Island resorts will end by early morning Friday, giving way to a mostly clear day. However, strong northwest winds, reaching severe gale force in exposed areas of Canterbury, will persist. Snow will return at night but is expected to turn to rain by early morning.

Mt Ruapehu will experience steady showers throughout midday, with snow levels dropping to 1600-1700m and strong northwest winds continuing.

Saturday will have heavy rain over the Southern Lakes, possibly turning to snow at higher elevations, will clear by early morning, followed by a clear day with northwest winds.

Canterbury will see severe northwest gales and heavy rain, especially for resorts near the Main Divide. Rain will clear and winds will ease in the south by afternoon and in other areas by evening.

Conditions will worsen on Mt Ruapehu in the afternoon as heavy rain begins and northwest winds strengthen to severe gale.

Sunday & Monday (1st & 2nd August)

A lot is expected on Sunday, across the South Island, with strong northwest winds escalating to severe gale in exposed areas. A fast-moving front will bring rain and snow to the Southern Lakes and Canterbury resorts near the Main Divide, clearing around dawn. Later, a slower front will bring heavy precipitation to the Southern Lakes and southern Canterbury in the afternoon, starting as snow but changing to rain on mid-to-lower slopes. This rain will not reach Mt Hutt and nearby Canterbury resorts until the evening.

Mt Ruapehu will start with clear skies, leading to a sunny day with brisk westerly winds.

Another tough day for the South Island on Monday, as northwest winds rise to severe gale. Rain will spread over the Southern Lakes from the afternoon and over Canterbury in the evening, eventually turning heavy.

Mt Ruapehu will see another sunny day as brisk westerly winds ease and shift northwest.

Persistent westerly winds are forecast for next week, likely leading to additional disruptions at the resorts. A cold front arriving on Tuesday will bring colder winds and new snow into Wednesday, favoring the Southern Lakes and Mt Ruapehu. A similar weather pattern is expected to pass over the country later in the week.

Thanks for reading. I'll continue to provide these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the southern hemisphere season.

Mike O'Connor