Monday & Tuesday (26th & 27th August)

Expect a fantastic day on Monday in the Southern Lakes, with fresh snow and mostly clear skies, with northerly breezes developing later.

Canterbury will see partly cloudy skies, potentially becoming overcast in the morning with some drizzle at certain resorts. Northwesterly winds will gradually intensify.

Mt Ruapehu will have challenging conditions, with drizzle turning into rain by the afternoon and strong northwesterly winds.

South Island resorts will start with a cloudy morning and scattered showers on Tuesday, clearing for a mostly fine afternoon, though the MacKenzie Basin may retain clouds and a few showers. Northwest winds, particularly strong in Canterbury, will ease and shift southwest by the afternoon.

Mt Ruapehu will face a tough morning with heavy rain and strong northwest winds as a front moves through. The afternoon will see some improvement, but conditions will remain harsh, with snow falling above 1800m later in the day.

Wednesday to Friday (28th to 30th August)

South Island resorts will enjoy a clear morning on Wednesday, but expect clouds to gather in the afternoon as northwest winds strengthen to gale force, likely disrupting lift operations. Heavy rain is expected later at night.

At Mt Ruapehu, rain will ease to showers by morning as strong southwesterlies shift to westerly winds, with precipitation gradually diminishing by evening. Snow will remain above 2000m.

Showers will spill over the Main Divide all day on Thursday due to strong northwest winds. In Canterbury, severe gales will probably limit or halt lift operations. Snow levels will lower gradually, reaching the lower slopes in the Southern Lakes and mid-slopes in Canterbury, with the heaviest snowfall near the Main Divide.

Gale-force northwest winds will hit Mt Ruapehu, with showers intensifying into heavy rain. Snowfall is unlikely as snow levels will remain too high.

On Friday, skies will clear and winds will ease as a weak ridge passes over the country.

This weekend, a new front is expected to bring a period of heavy rain and strong northwest winds, which could briefly reach severe gale levels. There might be some snow on either side of the front, but most of the precipitation will likely be rain.

Next week, models suggest that the unsettled, spring-like weather will persist, with strong winds and frequent fronts moving through. A colder air mass may arrive early in the week, increasing the likelihood of fresh snowfall at resorts.

Thanks for reading. I'll continue to provide these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the southern hemisphere season.

Mike O'Connor