Wednesday to Friday (21st to 23rd August)

All Kiwi resorts will have a sunny day on Wednesday, though the Southern Lakes may see a bit of cloud. A northwest breeze will start to pick up across the South Island, while the southwest breeze on Mt Ruapehu will calm down.

The South Island will experience strong to gale-force northwesterly winds on Thursday, leading to overcast skies and likely affecting lift operations, especially in Canterbury, where winds could become severe in exposed areas. Snow will move into the Southern Lakes in the afternoon, turning to rain by evening before clearing overnight. Canterbury will see a similar pattern, with snow and rain arriving in the evening and heavy precipitation during the night.

Mt Ruapehu will have mostly clear skies with some afternoon clouds and a northwest breeze.

The Southern Lakes will be mostly cloudy with northwest winds on Friday, and there could be showers of rain and high-altitude snow. Canterbury will have a tough day with heavy rain and severe northwesterly gales in exposed areas, likely disrupting operations. Some rain will turn to snow at higher levels, with conditions easing in the evening. Mt Ruapehu will be cloudy, with drizzle developing later in the day as northwesterlies strengthen.

The Weekend (24th to 25th August)

Northwest winds will again reach gale force in exposed parts of the South Island on Saturday. The Southern Lakes will have a mix of clouds and light snow showers, while Canterbury will enjoy mostly clear skies.

Heavy rain is expected on Mt Ruapehu as a front passes through, shifting strong northwesterly gales to a lighter westerly breeze, with the rain turning to snow down to mid-slopes.

On Sunday, a weak front might bring some snow to Canterbury, while the Southern Lakes and Mt Ruapehu should only see some clouds and westerly winds.

Thanks for reading. I'll continue to provide these forecasts every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday throughout the southern hemisphere season.

Mike O'Connor