Like last year, the Alps will be hit hard by a mid-April storm. This time around, we won't have the impressively cold temperatures, but it will be cold enough for snow at mid- and upper elevations across the southern and western Alps. A second storm is possible next weekend, but the models do not agree on its strength. 

Since my last post, the main question I've been trying to answer is how far east the cold front would advance during the latter part of the first storm. The models have come into better agreement overall, but there is still enough of a range in snow levels to keep things a bit tricky.

I think that generally, the farther north/west, the lower the snow levels will be. Secondly, snow levels should fall to between 1400 and 1700 m for most of the western/southwestern Alps, bottoming out on Thursday. Prior to the front, snow levels will be around 2100 to 2400 m through Wednesday morning. It's tough to keep the cold air around long in April, especially given this pattern, so snow levels will likely start climbing even during the night on Thursday.

The sun is strong in April, too, so taking advantage of fresh powder on Friday may be a bit more challenging. Given the big snow totals expected in the southern Alps and, to some degree, most of the western and southern Alps, terrain may be limited on Thursday. 

Let's look at the latest snow totals through Friday from the WRF model.

The greatest confidence in snow totals is for the southern Alps in Italy and Switzerland, specifically the southeast and south-facing areas. This is a result of the winds being out of the south and southeast primarily. They will transition to north/northeast later in the storm while the cold front moves in, which will allow some better accumulations on the western, northwestern, and northern side of the Alps.

Snow totals will be highly elevation-dependent with this storm. Base elevations for most resorts will see little or no snow. Above the snow line, totals will be significant, with a wide area of .75 to 1 m of snow possible. The Valle d'Aosta in Italy, like Monterosa and Breuil-Cervinia, the Wallis region in Switzerland, at Zermatt and Saas Fee, and higher elevation resorts in the Savoie region of France, like Bonneval sure Arc and Val d'Isere, are some of the areas that should do really well.

This may be a case of too much snow in parts of Switzerland and Italy. Combined with the questionable eastern progression of the cold front, some locations farther west (Switzerland/France) that will receive less snow may be a better option. 

This storm will also bring some decent snow to the Pyrenees, but snow depths are pretty rough in that area. Colder air will reach the Pyrenees, but overall, most of the resorts are at lower elevations. Snow quality should be decent at upper elevations, though. This storm will bring snow to the Pyrenees from Monday night through Wednesday and to the Alps from Wednesday through Friday. Prior to these days, precipitation will be lighter and fall as rain at lower and mid elevations. 

I was starting to become a little more confident about another round of heavy snow over the weekend, but the latest round of models significantly backed off on that scenario. We will have to see if this morning's runs are an aberration or the start of a trend. The ensembles still show another solid dump this weekend, so hope remains.

My next post will be on Wednesday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

Alps Regions:

NEW: Forecast Range Graphs

You can now view individual forecasts from global and regional high-resolution weather models in OpenSnow. This includes forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, HRRR, and ICON models, as well as the OpenSnow blend.

The graphs give you a behind-the-scenes look at the forecast and make it easier to see if the forecast models are in tight agreement or if there is a wide range of potential outcomes over the next 10 days.

Note: This is currently only available in the OpenSnow iOS app and website (OpenSnow.com). Android will be available soon.

Getting Started

1. Go to any location screen.
2. Scroll down under "Weather" or "Snow Summary".
3. Tap "View Interactive Chart" in the app.
4. Adjust the model, timeframe, or data view.

Why is the Forecast Range helpful?

Understand if there is high or low confidence in the forecast. If all models show a similar forecast, there is higher confidence in the forecast, and vice versa.

Dig into the details. If you have experience looking at weather model data and trust certain models or higher-resolution models, you'll be able to isolate your favorite data.

View → Forecast Range Graphs