Although there are some differences in the models, it is looking more likely that the eastern Alps, specifically the northern Alps in Austria, will see significant snow starting later this week and continuing into next week.

The models are now keeping the storm track to the east of the Alps, with overall smaller/weaker upper-level troughs. With a solid period of winds generally out of the north, the eastern Austrian Alps should still get hit pretty hard.

Check out the upper-level pattern from Saturday through the following Friday below.

The first storm is expected from Friday through Sunday, with the upper-level low tracking between the Alps and Pyrenees. This should bring a more widespread dose of snow to the northern Alps and the northern side of the Pyrenees before the low becomes cut off from the prevailing flow. At the same time, another area of low pressure will drop down from the north, but this time, it will track through Slovakia, which will favor the Austrian Alps.

Below is an early look at snow totals from the first round of snow. The European model generally has 15 - 30 cm across the northern Alps from northern France through Austria and in the northern Pyrenees as well.

The high-res WRF model is much more bullish, which is expected given the higher resolution, and has 25 - 50 cm in the northern Alps from France through Austria, with favored areas in the 35 - 70 cm range. This storm will bring a solid cold front through the Alps, so snow-to-liquid ratios will be pretty good. I think we need to see a few more model runs to get behind this, but it does show the potential. 

There won't be much of a break before the next low drops down from the north and tracks east of the Alps, with snow returning around Monday evening. This storm is expected to favor the eastern Australian Alps, with perhaps a sharp cutoff in snow totals to the west. Another 25 - 50 + cm is possible from this storm, with more cold air.

The models are having trouble with the long-range pattern starting around the end of next week. There's a pretty equal split between more storms and a several-day break with no action. We'll have to wait a few days to see if the models sort these differences out. 

My next post will be on Thursday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow