The models are starting to come into better agreement about the first storm in the upcoming cycle, at least, but given the inconsistency over the last few days I’m not quite ready to lock it in. 

A moderately strong storm is expected to arrive from the Northwest on Thursday. This is generally a cold storm track that features a decent moisture tap. The storm should stay mostly north of the Alps, unlike what the models were showing a few days ago with a splitting system. Cold west-northwest turning northwest winds will favor the usual suspects from the northern French Alps through the western Austrian Alps.

Temperatures will gradually cool off ahead of this storm and get a quick bump as it moves in on Thursday. Snow levels will quickly fall, however, as a strong cold front crosses the Alps on Thursday night. After peaking around 1000 m on Thursday night, snow levels will lower to around 500 m on Friday and remain there until the next storm approaches on Saturday. 

This will allow for some quality, low-density snowfall with snow-to-liquid ratios above 15:1. For totals, the models have shifted back to bringing the deepest snow to the northern French Alps, in the Savoie and Haute-Savoie regions, where a solid 15 - 30 cm is expected. Locally higher totals could approach 40 cm around Chamonix and in the Valle d’Aosta. 

Similarly, most of the northern side of the Swiss Alps should end up in the 15 - 30 cm range, with Engelberg and the Wallis, Vaud, and Bern regions favored. 

Finally, the northwest winds will bring good, though perhaps slightly lower, snow totals to western Austria as well. The northern Vorarlberg region is likely to see the deepest snow. 

As mentioned, snow from this system will linger through Saturday. With the next system right on its heels, much of the northern and western Alps won’t see any break. 

The details surrounding storm number two are not completely clear at the moment, and the models are struggling to understand them. Generally, it looks like this storm will move in from the west rather than the north or northwest, which typically means warmer temperatures and higher snow levels. This storm track also favors the French Alps, both the northern and southern regions. 

There are some models indicating the snow levels could climb above 2000 m before a more modest cold front brings them back down to around 1500 m toward the end of the storm. I’ll have more details as the models become more clear. 

We should see a break around mid-week with more storms possible later next week. The long range models show active weather continuing into the weekend. 

My next post will be on Thursday.

Thanks for reading the Europe Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

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