June 2024 Review:

Active weather continued across most of Western, Central, and Northern Europe in June. Several rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms hammered the Alps, with heavy rains causing devastating flooding and landslides, and even some high-elevation snow.

Temperatures for June were above average for most of Europe, except France, Spain, and parts of the Alps. The average European temperature was 1.57°C above the 1991-2020 June average, making it the joint-second warmest June on record for Europe. Temperatures were notably above average in southeastern regions and Turkey, while western Europe, Iceland, and northwestern Russia experienced temperatures that were near or below average. The temperature anomalies are in line with the northern/western storm track.

Precipitation anomalies were a mixed bag across Europe in June. A strong upper-level trough in the northeast Atlantic, shown below, led to several storms in Northern, Western, and parts of Central Europe.

In conjunction with the strong ridge over southeastern Europe, this upper-level trough provided the ingredients for frequent thunderstorm activity in the Alps. Iceland, Central, and most of Southwestern Europe experienced wetter-than-average conditions. The month was drier than average in Ireland, most of the UK, southern Italy, and much of Eastern Europe, especially around the Black Sea.

The strong thunderstorms produced heavy precipitation in the Alps, causing floods and landslides in parts of Germany, Italy, France, and Switzerland. Tragically, these storms resulted in four deaths, as well as hundreds of evacuations and rescues. A few images of the damage from these storms are shown below.

At higher elevations, the thunderstorms led to significant snow, especially in the Italian Alps as you can see below.

July 2024 Outlook:

Warmer temperatures are expected across most of Europe in July, with a more Summer-like pattern developing. As the storm track shifts farther north, drier conditions overall are likely for most of Europe, though some storms over the next week may help keep central Europe closer to average. This pattern is expected to bring above-normal temperatures to nearly all of Europe except for Scandinavia. The strongest above-normal temperature anomalies are expected in Eastern Europe. 

A strong above-average precipitation signal is noted in the UK and Scandinavia, in line with the more northerly storm track. Conditions are likely to be drier across Western, Central, Southern, and Eastern Europe, as ridging develops near the Mediterranean and over Eastern Europe.

Fire and Smoke Outlook:

The emergence of high-pressure systems over southern and eastern Europe is expected to lead to warmer-than-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. This dry and warm pattern increases the likelihood of wildfires in Southern and Eastern Europe.

Thanks for reading and let's hope the Alps get a break from the thunderstorm activity in July! I will post the next monthly update in early August.

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow