Favorable Pattern Ahead for the Southwest:

We are beginning to see a "classic" El Nino pattern take shape with a storm track that will favor the Southwest U.S. heading into early February. Portions of the Southwest saw a nice appetizer late last week, including Brian Head in Southern Utah who enjoyed a 16-inch powder day last Friday. 

Forecast for Mon (Jan 29) to Tue (Jan 30):

The East will see lingering snow from a late weekend storm on Monday morning, while a quick-hitting storm will bring light snow to Michigan on Tuesday. The Northwest will see a warm and wet pattern with subtropical moisture, resulting in periods of rain and high snow levels across Washington and BC. 

Forecast for Wed (Jan 31) to Thu (Feb 1):

Periods of rain will continue across the Northwest with snow levels gradually lowering by Thursday (the upper portions of some ski areas will see a change-over back to snow, mainly in BC). Meanwhile, moisture will also reach Tahoe and the Sierra Nevada Range with heavy snow across the higher elevations, along with gradually lowering snow levels. Check out the Tahoe Daily Snow for more details.

Across the East, a storm will slide into the Southern Appalachians from the northwest, bringing snow from West Virginia to North Carolina. 

Forecast for Fri (Feb 2) to Sat (Feb 3):

A storm will move into the Southwest during this period with heavy snow possible across the Four Corners region in particular, while the Sierra will see some leftovers. Snow levels will finally drop across the Northwest as colder air arrives, and many areas will see some snow but confidence is low in terms of the storm track, prevailing winds, and which areas will see the most snow. 

Across the East, a storm is also possible across New England though confidence is low in the storm track here as well.

Outlook for Sun (Feb 4) to Thu (Feb 8):

An active storm track will continue across the Southwest during this period, with the Southern Sierra and the Four Corners region looking most favored. The Central Rockies will likely see lighter snowfall during this period, with colder and drier conditions expected across the Northwest.

The East is looking colder during this period as well (especially the Mid-Atlantic), but snowfall potential is uncertain as the pattern looks relatively dry despite the more favorable temperatures. 

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Wednesday (Jan 31).

Alan Smith 

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