We have two more storms to finish out an impressive March. They will both drop several inches up to a foot or more of new snow, but one will do it in one night, and the other over 3 days.

Wednesday Night Storm:

Partly sunny to start with increasing winds and clouds throughout the day as the next storm approaches.

Highs in the 30s for the upper elevations and 40s for the lower elevations. Ridgetop winds from the southwest gusting up to 70-80+ mph by the end of the day, possibly closing some upper mountain ski lifts early. Rain & high elevation snow showers could reach the crest between 1-5 PM.

Wednesday evening the main band of steadier precipitation associated with the cold front pushes in and moves through with the cold front overnight. That will bring heavy snow and falling snow levels overnight.

The latest model runs are drier for Thursday into Thursday night behind the front. We will have partly sunny skies with highs in the 30s, along with some scattered snow showers that could add a dusting to an inch of snow to the mountains. Ridgetop winds will still be gusty Thursday morning but should slowly drop into the afternoon.

The latest model runs haven't changed much. They still show 1-2 inches of total precipitation falling west of the lake up along the Sierra crest, with up to 1.1 inches reaching the east side of the basin. The model average is up about a tenth of an inch again this morning to around 1.5 inches near the crest.

Snow levels will be up around 7000-8000 ft. as the lighter precipitation moves in Wednesday afternoon. Then around 6500-7000 ft. Wednesday evening as the steadier precipitation pushes in. They could hover near lake level through midnight before crashing behind the front close to 4000 ft. by Thursday morning. We should see snow to most lake level locations by midnight.

With the snow levels starting high and taking a while to crash, we don't expect fluffy powder until the end early Thursday morning. Overnight snow ratios could average around 6:1 at lake level with part of that being rain, and 10-15:1 between 7000-9000 ft. Don't forget you can see the snow ratios for yourself now on our automated forecast pages.

Here is my final snowfall forecast, which is up slightly with the wetter model trend as the storm moves in.

Almost all of this forecast is expected by Thursday morning, so Thursday will be the day to ski, just expect gusty winds in the morning. Thursday should be very similar to this past Saturday when we woke up to 6-20 inches of snow on the mountains.

Friday - Sunday Storm:

This storm is harder to forecast as the closed low drops down along the CA coast Friday - Saturday and inland to our south Saturday - Sunday. The latest model runs have trended back wetter with some decent precipitation falling over the Sierra on the east side of the low Friday night into Saturday and a deformation band on the north side of the low bringing showers into Sunday.

We should see snow showers increase again by Friday afternoon as moisture with the next storm flows into the Sierra. The steadiest snow is expected Friday night into Saturday morning as a weak and thin moisture stream is aimed at the northern Sierra that slides south. Then snow showers are possible for Saturday into Sunday as the flow turns easterly on the north side of the low to our south.

Highs in the 30s through the weekend. We could see the sun peek out at times on Sunday with the scattered showers. The winds don't look as strong with this storm as the previous storm. 

The latest model runs increased their forecasts from 0.4 - 1.65 inches of total precipitation near the crest by Sunday night to 0.8 - 2.1 inches this morning, and up to 1.55 on the east side of the basin. The model average has increased a few tenths up to around 1.4 inches near the crest.

Snow levels fluctuate between 4000-600 ft. through the weekend, which would keep them below lake level. Snow ratios could average around 10-15:1 from lake level up to the peaks through the weekend. Just over half of the snowfall forecast could fall by Saturday morning, with the other half falling Saturday - Sunday.

Here is my updated snowfall forecast for this storm.

In total by Monday morning, some mountains near the crest have a shot at hitting 3 feet of snow from the two storms. 

If you remember back to January 1st, we were sitting at the 4th lowest snowfall since at least 1970. We are now on track to see average snowfall for the season, with some ski areas seeing above average. The only season since 1970 that we saw above-average snowfall for the season after being in the bottom 10 on 1/1 was 2018-19, thanks to over 200" in February. 

Sugar Bowl has recorded 165 inches of snow so far for March, and has a shot at 200 inches for the month. Look at their base depth increase by month! You can see these graphs for all ski areas on their snow report tabs.

Sugar Bowl Snow Report | OpenSnow

That is an amazing comeback, even if officially at the Snow Lab we don't end up above average for the season. We are currently at 81% of average and need 74 inches by the end of the season to get to above average.

The latest model runs continue to show high-pressure building in over the West Coast by Monday through next Wednesday the 3rd.

We will see mostly sunny skies each day. Highs warming into the 40s for Monday and 50s for the lower elevations for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Colder Pattern Returns:

By the 4th of April through the 8th, the long-range models continue to show the ridge shifting east with a cold trough settling in over the West.

That will bring below-average temperatures again and will open the door to weak systems dropping in from the north. The latest model runs are back and forth between showing a weak storm or two bringing some snow during the period to storms missing us to the east. We'll continue to watch the trends.

Fantasy Range:

There are some signs that beyond the 8th high pressure in the eastern Pacific could shift a bit closer to the West Coast. That could mean we have less of a chance for weak storms beyond the 8th, and a milder pattern.

Any moisture around during April can cause afternoon showers to develop over the mountains with the convection from daytime heating with the higher and stronger sun angle in spring. We'll keep an eye out for that along with any late-season storms that could bring some snow in April.

Stay tuned...BA