Snow showers on Sunday were mainly confined up along the crest and the west side of the Tahoe basin and were much more scattered and non-existent on the east side and south of the region.

The ski resorts on the west side are reporting a fresh 5-8 inches of snow in the past 24 hours as of 6 AM Monday. The east side of the basin only picked up a dusting to an inch of new snow.

That brings the 2-day storm totals so far to 7-22 inches. That is a big range for 2 reasons. 1) high snow levels Saturday with rain for some mountains & 2) shadowing to the east side of the basin on Sunday. We have 1 more day to go with this storm before we tally up the 3-day storm totals Tuesday morning.

Monday Snow:

The low spinning along the CA coast is finally moving inland Monday morning. That is pushing another round of snow showers into the Sierra.

Snow levels are plenty low, below 4000 ft. start. They could rise up to 4500 - 5500 ft. through the day on Monday. The steadiest snow showers are expected Monday morning and then become more scattered during the afternoon into Monday night. They should clear out by Tuesday morning.

Ridgetop winds are still gusty with ridgetop gusts up to 50+ mph from the southwest over exposed ridges Monday. Highs only in the 20s on the mountains and 30s at lake level. The latest model runs suggest up to 4 tenths of an inch of additional precip along the crest with less to the east side of the basin.

Most of the snow should fall along the crest again with shadowing to the east side of the lake. Here is the forecast for final snowfall through Monday night.

Tuesday - Thursday:

The sun should start to come out Tuesday with mostly sunny skies by the afternoon. Then mostly sunny Wednesday into Thursday, with some high clouds possible later Thursday. Lighter winds through Wednesday. Highs into the 30s at lake level and 20s for the upper mountains.

Ridgetop winds increasing Thursday afternoon from the southwest with gusts up to 40+ mph as the next storm approaches the region.

Friday - Saturday Storms:

The front moving through Friday still looks to weaken as it moves through the Sierra. This will be a fairly cold but weak system with light snow expected.

The winds could be gusting up to 70+ mph over the ridges Friday. The snow could move in after midnight Thursday night with scattered snow showers through Friday. Highs in the 20s and 30s. Snow levels starting below 4000 ft. and rising up to 5000-5500 ft. Friday.

Based on the latest model runs we would likely only see around 1-6 inches of snow on the mountains through Friday. But the next storm could move in so fast behind the first that we don't see much of a break between the two going into Friday night.

The forecast models are not in agreement on how much moisture this system is going to tap into from off of the Pacific ocean. This storm could last through Saturday and move out Saturday night.

The GFS model is the wettest this morning and shows up to 3+ inches of total liquid by Sunday morning along the crest. The European model on the map above is drier with only up to 1 inch along the crest. The total model average this morning is around 2 inches.

Here is a look at the WPC's blended model showing over 2 inches including today (Monday) and the weak Friday system. You can see that these storms all favor the Tahoe Basin and north with the most precip.

Here is my initial snowfall forecast for the Fri-Sat systems combined. We are going to have to fine-tune this all week as we see how much moisture this system taps.

Of note is that the snow levels tap out around 5500 ft. Friday night on the latest GFS model run, which is below lake level. We could see them go higher if the system taps additional moisture as we saw happen with the storm this weekend. Then they fall Saturday as the storm moves through.

We will be fine-tuning this forecast all week as we watch the trends with these back-to-back systems.

The long-range models keep the trough over the West Coast into the week of the 12th up until around the 15th.

That could keep the pattern active with more storm diving from the Gulf of Alaska south into the trough through the period. The long-range ensemble mean models show precipitation chances almost every day starting Friday.

If this continues what a great start to the season, again!

Fantasy Range:

Beyond mid-month, there are still some signs that the pattern could change from a -PNA (western trough) pattern towards a +PNA (western ridge) pattern.

Looking at some of the longer-range operational models they do show the storm track starting to shift to our north by the 15th. We'll have to see if these trends continue.

Stay tuned...BA

Fresh Tracks!

On this week's show, we talk to two teams of Powder Chasers crisscrossing the country with some great stories so far this season! Plus the usual snowfall reports and forecasts for the upcoming week.

Available on most podcast platforms...