The recent storm dropped a solid amount of snow at the resorts over the weekend and into Monday. Snow reports are particularly hard to acquire this time of year, but I managed to find a few and have listed them below. These are from the base elevations of the resorts.

• Portillo: 41 cm
• Corralco: 40 cm
• Valle Nevado: 17 cm

This was a fairly warm storm overall, especially in the north, so it will help build the early-season snowpack. The rest of this week is fairly uneventful, with a few weak storms expected today (Wednesday) and then again from Friday through Saturday. Up to 10 cm is possible during this period, with the southern part of the central zone and the southern zone most likely to hit that mark.

Below is the latest snow forecast from the European model from Wednesday through Saturday.

A stronger storm is possible later in the weekend, starting around Saturday night. Impacts are expected to begin on Sunday in the southern zone. Right now, this looks like a moderate event with high snow levels. 

Below is what the storm looks like on the latest guidance from the European model.

You can see the upper-level low tracks across the southern tip of South America, limiting impacts in the north and limiting the northerly extent of the cold air. It is interesting to note, however, that as the storm makes landfall, it pushes farther north. This could lead to some better accumulations in the upper elevations of the Argentine side of the Andes.

Below is an early look at snow totals for this storm.

There is considerable disagreement in the models regarding snow totals, as you can see in the OpenSnow forecast range below for Corraclo. Each line represents the snow forecast from a different model, ranging between 5 and 20 inches or 13 to 50 cm. 

If you look at total precipitation, instead of snow, there is much better agreement in the models. 

The discrepancy between these is explained by the temperatures and therefore snow level forecast, which you can also see below.

Until the models come into better agreement on the temperatures and snow levels, confidence remains low.

The models continue to show a strong ridge developing off the South American coast around Tuesday of next week, persisting through the end of the following week. This would keep things dry and halt any further snowpack growth. The latter part of this period is beyond seven days, so confidence in this pattern isn't too high. 

My next post will be on Friday.

Thanks for reading the South America Daily Snow!

Luke Stone
Forecaster, OpenSnow

NEW: Forecast Range Graphs

You can now view individual forecasts from global and regional high-resolution weather models in OpenSnow. This includes forecasts from the GFS, ECMWF, HRRR, and ICON models, as well as the OpenSnow blend.

The graphs give you a behind-the-scenes look at the forecast and make it easier to see if the forecast models are in tight agreement or if there is a wide range of potential outcomes over the next 10 days.

Note: This is currently only available in the OpenSnow iOS app and website (OpenSnow.com). Android will be available soon.

Getting Started

1. Go to any location screen.
2. Scroll down under "Weather" or "Snow Summary".
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4. Adjust the model, timeframe, or data view.

Why is the Forecast Range helpful?

Understand if there is high or low confidence in the forecast. If all models show a similar forecast, there is higher confidence in the forecast, and vice versa.

Dig into the details. If you have experience looking at weather model data and trust certain models or higher-resolution models, you'll be able to isolate your favorite data.

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