Forecast for Monday 30th June to Wednesday 2nd July

Monday brings cool west to southwest winds, with a mix of sunshine and cloud across the Southern Lakes. Skies in Canterbury should brighten during the afternoon. Mt Ruapehu stays mostly overcast with some drizzle, though higher slopes might catch clearer conditions.

By Tuesday, a ridge of high pressure moves in, clearing out any remaining cloud in the morning. Winds ease and the day stays calm and crisp.

Wednesday starts out fine across both islands, but high cloud will slowly build. Light westerlies drift over the South Island, while northerlies strengthen around Ruapehu.

Forecast for Thursday 3rd & Friday 4th July

Thursday sees a messy system arriving from the northwest, bringing wet snow and rain to the South Island along with strengthening northeasterlies. Snow levels may briefly dip low, but the snow will be heavy and damp. The Southern Lakes could get a light covering around 5 cm, with Canterbury in line for 5–15 cm if temperatures stay cool. Mt Ruapehu is in for a rough ride, with strong winds and heavy rain likely disrupting lift access.

Friday remains mostly grey over the South Island. Canterbury should see a few clearer spells, while the Southern Lakes may get some light rain in the morning and again overnight. Ruapehu stays showery in blustery northwest winds.

On Saturday, the low-pressure system over the Tasman Sea will weaken considerably as it passes across the North Island, causing just light showers near Mt Ruapehu. Meanwhile, a cold southerly front may push into the South Island, leaving a thin layer of snow over Canterbury’s ski resorts.

Then, a fresh high-pressure system will move in, bringing stable and dry conditions through Sunday and Monday, July 7th.

Thanks for reading. The next forecast will be out early Wednesday.

Mike