May 2025 marked a transition of seasons across the East with early summer now underway. May saw every type of weather from high-elevation snow in New England to summer heat with thunderstorms and a few tornadoes in other areas of the East.

In June, summer will continue to arrive with high humidity and more thunderstorms. Tropical disturbances will also see increasing chances of occurring in June. There are a couple of snow patches still clinging to the highest elevations in New England for the die-hard skiers.

Temperatures will see a 30-60% chance of being above-normal in June, with the highest chances of above-normal temperatures in New England. The precipitation forecast in June will see equal chances of being above or below normal for the northern half of the East and a 30-50% chance of above-normal precipitation for areas in the Southeast.

Read on to learn more about the weather in May and the June forecast.

May 2025 Review:

Spring has sprung, and we are now transitioning into summer across the East. May saw all transitions in active weather from a high-elevation snow event in New England on May 23-25 to a few tornadoes and several days of severe weather throughout May.

Temperatures during May were above and below normal. The Eastern half of the East, closest to the Atlantic Ocean, saw normal to above-normal temperatures, while the western half of the East saw normal to below-normal temperatures. This contrast in temperatures was due to two different air masses that caused warm and moist air to stay near the coast, but cooler air further west.

May was overall a wet month across the East with normal to above-normal precipitation. The above-normal temperatures closer to the coast were associated with above-normal precipitation that extended into the Southeast.

The above-normal precipitation helped many areas that were in drought conditions. There are still a few areas in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast that need more rain to reduce drought conditions.

June 2025 Outlook:

In June, the weather pattern will favor above-normal temperatures, with a 30-60% chance of being above-normal. The highest chances of above-normal temperatures will be in New England. Humidity will increase in June as well, which will make summer in full swing. 

The precipitation outlook in June forecasts equal chances of above or below normal precipitation for the northern half of the East, north of Maryland. For areas south of Maryland through the Southeast, the precipitation forecast shows a 30-50% chance of above-normal precipitation, with higher chances further south due to an increase in thunderstorms and a few chances of tropical disturbances.

 

Severe Weather

There has been an increase in severe weather in May due to warmer temperatures and more moisture. We saw the first tornadoes of the season in the East with several days of severe weather. Only a few thunderstorms affected New England, with a majority of storms affecting the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Below is a look at the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) May preliminary report summary of tornadoes, severe winds, and hail.

Wildfire Outlook

Wildfires are starting to spark in the Western US and especially Canada. Dry conditions in Canada through the spring have led to wildfires and smoke transport into areas of the Midwest and East at the start of June. These wildfires will continue to burn, with increasing chances of wildfire conditions in the Western US. A dry area along the coastal Carolinas will see above-normal wildfire potential as well.

It is unclear whether the smoke transport will continue in the Midwest and East, but make sure to use the wildfire transport map and active wildfire map for the latest conditions. 

Below is a look at the wildfire potential for the US and Canada in June.

Tropical Outlook

The tropical season is getting underway with increasing tropical activity expected in June. The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season is expected to be above normal, which is primarily due to warmer ocean temperatures than normal.

A warmer ocean causes more evaporation over the ocean waters and allows the atmosphere to hold more moisture. This helps tropical cyclones quickly grow bigger and stronger. 

Below is a look at the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and a look at the National Hurricane Center's 7-day tropical outlook.

Thanks for reading. I will have the next monthly review at the start of July.

Zach Butler