Forecast for Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy skies with occasional light snow showers/flurries can be expected as we will see some lingering moisture in between weather systems. Any daytime accumulations will be very light, and we could also see some occasional peaks of sun during the afternoon.

High temps will reach the mid-20s at 9,000 feet and low 40s in the valleys. Winds will pick up during the afternoon out of the west/southwest with gusts to 25-35 mph at 10,000 feet.

Forecast for Wednesday Night to Thursday:

A storm remains on track with a round of heavier and more widespread snow expected. Winds will be out of the southwest with this storm, which will favor the southern end of the Teton Range, and we will also have some jet stream support to enhance snowfall rates.

This looks like a solid late-season storm, with the main limiting factor being the relatively short duration with snow falling from late Wednesday night through early Thursday afternoon before tapering off by late Thursday afternoon as a weak cold front arrives.

Warmer air will be arriving ahead of this storm on Wednesday evening, and this will result in a wetter/denser snow event. That's not necessarily a bad thing at this time of year, as the denser snow quality will help to cover up old melt/freeze crusts more easily. The snow will be a little upside down, though, after lower-density snow accumulated earlier this week. 

Snow Totals – Winds out of the southwest will favor the southern end of the Teton Range including JHMR and Teton Pass. The timing of heaviest snowfall rates on Thursday morning (when temps are coldest and before the sun is high in the sky) will also result in accumulations in the Jackson Hole Valley. 

The town of Jackson is about 1.5 inches shy of its all-time March snowfall record of 32.8 inches (granted there are many years with missing data). It will be a close call on whether or not this storm will push us over the mark or not.

Wind – Winds will be out of the southwest with gusts to 30-40 mph at 10,000 feet throughout this event. Some of the highest gusts may occur toward the end of the storm on Thursday afternoon as a weak cold front approaches.

Skiing Conditions – Thursday midday/afternoon will offer the deepest conditions as I'm expecting minimal snowfall after lifts close on Thursday. Friday morning will be good as well (just a little more tracked out inbounds) and may have better visibility and lighter winds compared to Thursday.

Travel – The Thursday AM commute will be slow with snow-packed and slushy roads over the pass at a minimum, and likely in the valleys as well. The heaviest snowfall rates with this storm are expected during the morning hours. Improvement is expected Thursday afternoon, but there could be some icing on Friday morning with colder morning temperatures after the storm.

Forecast for Friday:

Another lull in the pattern will occur with skies remaining partly to mostly cloudy (occasional sun peaking through) while flurries will be possible at times. Highs will reach the upper 20s at 9,000 feet and low 40s in the valleys, and winds will also be lighter.

Outlook for Saturday (March 30) to Sunday (March 31):

The weekend forecast remains tricky. A trough of low pressure will be working its way southward near the California Coast, and surges of moisture and energy will be moving into the Intermountain West from the south/southwest. The Tetons are right on the northern fringe of this pattern, and it still looks like a close call in terms of snow chances.

On Saturday, models are close to a 50/50 split (or maybe 60/40) in terms of whether or not we see any measurable snow. Snowfall potential also looks lighter compared to prior forecasts, so if we do manage to pick up some snow, it may only be a couple of inches or so up high.

Sunday looks more interesting, but there is still plenty of uncertainty. An area of low pressure will break off from the main trough off the West Coast and approach our area from the southwest (see the "L" pictured below near the Nevada/Utah border).

After the low reaches Utah, the European Model is projecting it track northeastward across Wyoming which would result in snow for the Tetons. However, the American GFS and Canadian Models have the low tracking more due east near the Colorado/Wyoming border, which would put us right on the edge of seeing snow vs. not seeing snow.

If we look at the ensembles (multiple simulations of the same model with slightly different initial conditions), the European Model shows an 80-90% chance of measurable snow (>1") for the Tetons, whereas the GFS and Canadian Models have only about a 50-60% chance.

The new European AI Model has us right on the edge as well, probably closer to the 50-50 solution that the GFS and Canadian Models are hinting at. In other words, not much clarity. 

Bottom Line – Snow is possible on both Saturday and Sunday, with a better chance (and higher-end potential amounts) on Sunday compared to Saturday. However, neither day is a sure thing. My hunch is that we will probably see some snow over the weekend, but with a better chance of light totals versus deep totals. 

Temperatures are expected to be fairly mild in this pattern, so any snow we get will likely be on the wetter/denser side.

Hopefully, we'll start to see better model agreement on this setup soon. Stay tuned...

Outlook for Early April:

At a minimum, Monday (April 1) and Tuesday (April 2) will be warmer and drier as high pressure briefly builds over the area.

The next storm along with a cold front will arrive from the northwest sometime in the April 3rd to 5th timeframe. Models are in poor agreement on when exactly this storm will arrive. It could happen as early as Wednesday the 3rd or as late as Friday the 5th. Early indications are that it will be a short/medium duration event, but confidence is low this far out.

Beyond the 5th, the pattern looks to stay cool and unsettled with additional shots of snow every 1-3 days. It doesn't look like the kind of pattern that would favor big storms, with activity likely being more showery in nature.

Thanks so much for reading! Next update on Thursday (March 28).

Alan Smith 

NEW: Snow Ratio Forecast

You can now get a good idea of the upcoming snow quality for the next storm via our new "Snow Ratio" forecast for any location in OpenSnow.

When we talk about snow quality, such as “light and fluffy” or “heavy and wet”, we are talking about the snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher the snow-to-liquid ratio, the lighter the snow quality, and vice-versa.

1. Go to any location screen and tap the "Snow Summary" tab.
2. Scroll down to the 5-day hourly or 10-day forecast section.
3. View the 5-day hourly or daily "Snow Ratio" forecast for the next 10 days.

10:1 will be fun but will feel a little heavy. 15:1 will offer some faceshots and feel pretty light. 20:1 will be incredibly light, almost like skiing through nothing but air.

This new feature is currently available with the latest version of the OpenSnow iOS app installed (App Store > OpenSnow > Update) or on the OpenSnow website (OpenSnow.com). It will be available in the OpenSnow Android app soon.

View → Snow Ratio Forecast